NCAA Basketball MAAC Power Poll
1: Niagara Purple Eagles (9-1 ATS, 9-2 SU) (LW: 1) Sports NCAAB betting gurus should keep Niagara in mind in the future. The Purple Eagles picked up their fourth straight cover against the Bonnies by winning 83-65 last week. Their six-game road trip is now four games old, and all four have been SU and ATS victories.
This Week: Away at Murray State, Away at Tennessee-Chattanooga, Home vs. Manhattan
2: Siena Saints (5-3-1 ATS, 7-4 SU) (LW: 3) Siena sent a real message to its fellow MAAC members with a pair of impressive victories last week. The Saints last ATS loss was back on November 30th, and they'll wrap up 2008 with a visit to Holy Cross before getting back into MAAC action in the new year.
This Week: Away at Holy Cross, Home vs. Fairfield, Home vs. St. Peter's
3: Manhattan Jaspers (3-2 ATS, 7-3 SU) (LW: 2) Manhattan picked up a 65-61 win over Long Island right before the holidays, but haven't been involved in a college basketball betting odds affair since December 14th. They'll be back in action this week after a full seven days off for the holidays.
This Week: Home vs. American, Away at La Salle, Away at Niagara
4: Canisius Golden Griffins (3-3 ATS, 4-7 SU) (LW: 4) The Griffs were off last week, and following a road game in Maine, will return home for just their second home game since before Thanksgiving. They're just 0-1 ATS this year at home.
This Week: Away at Maine, Home vs. Loyola-Maryland
5: Iona Gaels (4-4 ATS, 5-8 SU) (LW: 5) The Gaels closed out 2008 with a fairly disastrous four-game road trip. They finished 1-3 SU and ATS on that trip, and return home this week for their first home game in MAAC play.
This Week: Home vs. Rider, Home vs. Fairfield
6: Marist Red Foxes (3-6-1 ATS, 5-8 SU) (LW: 7) Finally, the Marist offense woke up! After averaging just 53.5 points per game in their previous five games, the Red Foxes scored 74 against Delaware and 89 against Bucknell in their two victories last week. Will the offense continue heading back into MAAC play?
This Week: Away at Binghamton, Home vs. St. Peter's, Away at Rider
7: Fairfield Stags (3-6 ATS, 8-4 SU) (LW: 8) Fairfield's seven-game winning streak ended with a 75-55 loss in Connecticut the day after Christmas. Basketball bettors won't mind though, as its three-game ATS slide ended. In their L/3 covers, the Stags have averaged only 64.0 points per game. In an unusual twist, in their L/3 ATS defeats, they averaged 71.0.
This Week: Away at Siena, Away at Iona
8: St. Peter's Peacocks (1-3 ATS, 4-8 SU) (LW: 9) Peacocks games have been a horror to watch of late. Neither St. Peter's nor their opponents have scored more than 69 points in any of its L/5 games, of which the Peacocks are just 2-3 SU and 0-1 ATS. Things should pick up with MAAC play starting up again in '09.
This Week: Away at Marist, Away at Siena
9: Rider Broncs (1-4 ATS, 6-5 SU) (LW: 6) It was a bad week to be a Bronc. Rider lost to Binghamton and Drexel to mark three straight ATS defeats. It hasn't covered a road game since February of last season, and will hope to reverse that trend this week.
This Week: Away at Iona, Home vs. Marist
10: Loyola-Maryland Greyhounds (1-5 ATS, 4-7 SU) (LW: 10) Loyola was off for eight days, and they're going to need it. A trip down Tobacco Road with games at NC State and Duke are on the horizon in a very busy week.
This Week: Away at North Carolina State, Away at Duke, Away at Canisius
(c) 1994-2008 BetUS
Chism helps No. 16 Tennessee beat No. 24 Marquette
NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) --- The Southeastern Conference is struggling so far this season with Tennessee the only team in the league currently ranked. The Big East has a record eight teams in the Top 25.
So a perfect time for the Big East to burnish its reputation, right? Not in Nashville, at least not when Tennessee is involved.
Wayne Chism scored a career-high 26 points, and No. 16 Tennessee beat No. 24 Marquette 80-68 on Tuesday night to give the SEC a sweep of the first doubleheader in the Southeastern Conference/Big East Invitational.
Vanderbilt beat South Florida 71-52 in the first game.
The Big East won three of four when the conferences did this last season. The second doubleheader is Thursday night in Cincinnati, featuring Mississippi State against Cincinnati and Mississippi facing No. 9 Louisville.
In other games involving ranked teams on Tuesday, it was: No. 5 Texas 88, Texas Southern 72; and No. 25 Clemson 76, North Florida 36.
Under coach Bruce Pearl, Tennessee improved to 6-1 in the Sommet Center, where the Vols turn the arena into a home away from Knoxville every time they visit. They had 9,498 fans painting the arena orange on Tuesday night.
"Nashville has been a great place over the last four years for Tennessee basketball," Pearl said. "We've played some great teams and had some great crowds. It just keeps getting better every year. I just appreciate the turnout, and well, we needed that one needless to say."
The Volunteers (7-2) came into the game having lost two of their last three, including a big loss at Temple last Saturday in which they never led. Tyler Smith had 14 points and Bobby Maze added 10 for the Vols.
Marquette (8-2) had won three straight and has four starters averaging in double figures. The Golden Eagles had won four of the previous six between these schools, but this team has a short bench. Coach Buzz Williams played only eight players and three fouled out.
"Anytime we get in foul trouble, no matter who the player is, we're out of whack," Williams said.
Wesley Matthews had 30 points for Marquette, Lazar Hayward added 14 and Jerel McNeal 10.
Tennessee had the deeper bench with nine Vols playing at least seven minutes. That and Chism wound up being the difference with officials calling 54 fouls.
Chism scored 21 points in the second half, including a stunning sequence when he dunked, then hit a 3. He was a career-best 8-of-11 at the free throw line and grabbed 11 rebounds in an arena he calls the Icebox.
"I haven't lost in this gym," Chism said. "It's been cold and cold and cold. This was the first time I felt it was warm. For some reason, I like this gym, and it's a very good place to play in."
No. 5 Texas 88, Texas Southern 72
At Austin, Texas, A.J. Abrams scored 27 points and Dexter Pittman added a career-high 19 for the Longhorns (9-1), who led 35-34 at halftime. Abrams had 16 points and Pittman added 15 as Texas scored 53 points in the second half to pull away for the home win.
Matthew Miller led Texas Southern (0-9) with 21 points, 10 above his season average.
No. 25 Clemson 76, North Florida 36
At Clemson, S.C., Trevor Booker had 16 points, 10 rebounds and five blocked shots as Clemson moved to 11-0 for the third time in four seasons. The Tigers are 43-0 under coach Oliver Purnell over the past four seasons in games played before Dec. 22.
It was the fewest points scored against Clemson since a 77-28 win over Wofford on Feb. 6, 1996.
Kyle Groothuis had nine points and seven rebounds for the Ospreys (0-8), who shot 16 percent (4-of-25) in the second half.
(c) 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.
San Jose State Spartans at San Diego Toreros
The San Diego Toreros (4-4 SU, 3-3 ATS) are not off to the kind of start they may have liked, although the level of competition has been elevated. On Monday they will try to climb over the .500 mark as they meet up with the San Jose State Spartans (2-3 SU, 0-2 ATS) in NCAA college basketball sports betting action that is slated to tip off at 10 PM ET at the Jenny Craig Pavilion in San Diego.
BetUS Sportsbook NCAA Basketball Odds: SAN DIEGO -10.5, Total 114
Here are some of the NCAA basketball sports betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
* SJSU has lost nine of its last 12 games SU
* SJSU has lost 11 of its last 12 road games SU
* SD has won 18 of its last 25 games SU
* SD has won its last five home games SU
Also....
* SD has won and covered four of the last six meetings
San Diego was one of the surprise stories of last year's college basketball season. The Toreros, under former Gonzaga assistant Bill Grier, won the West Coast Conference tournament (held at the Jenny Craig Pavilion) to become one of three WCC clubs in the Big Dance (aside from Gonzaga and St. Mary's). Then they upset U-Conn in the first round of action. They've done it with defense and a deliberate style of basketball, which tends to frustrate opponents.
And with more experience some (including myself) expected them to be even better. But sometimes when you emerge one year you get invited to play against higher-level non-conference opponents in pre-season tournaments, made-fro-TV games and whatnot, and San Diego has found obstacles in their path, as they have tasted defeat at the hands of Wisconsin (shooting 34.5%), Miami (shooting 32.7%), UNLV and, in their last effort, crosstown rival San Diego State, where they lost leading scorer Brandon Johnson with an Achilles tendon injury.
So this team, which does not shoot well from beyond the arc, must figure out a way to replace Johnson's 13.5 ppg and 1.6 steals per contest, a task that could be more difficult with guard De'Jon Jackson listed as day-to-day with a knee injury.
San Jose State has hardly even begun its season. Its biggest test yet was at Nebraska, a place that is a dungeon if you're a poor shooting team. The Spartans shot just 36% in that loss, but more importantly, hit only three shots from downtown. They also lost to Presbyterian (a provisional Division I team) and were held without a field goal over the last five minutes in last Wednesday's defeat against Santa Clara.
Still, I don't know if it's wise to lay this many points with San Diego, in the shape they're in, considering SJSU would like to slow this game to a crawl if it can. San Jose at least has a little scoring balance, some defense (allowing 34.5% shooting) and a capable center in Chris Oakes (9 rpg, two blocks per contest). San Diego, like the Spartans, averages more turnovers than assists, and that is not helped with Johnson's absence.
So while we're cautious, we'll grab the points with San Jose State, the 10.5-point underdog in the BetUS NCAA college basketball sports betting odds.
(c) 1994-2008 BetUS.
"Slipper Index" shows historic lack of upsets in 2007 NCAAs
March 21, 2007
In the days leading up to the 2007 NCAA tournament, everywhere you turned another pundit was speculating which team would be this year's George Mason, that little school out of the Colonial Athletic Association which earned an at-large bid one year ago and went on to reach the Final Four as a No. 11 seed.
The Patriots run was rightly seen as an outstanding feat, but also as a sign mid-major conferences could finally compete with the big programs. Wins over heavyweights like Michigan State, North Carolina and Connecticut were supposedly proof that parity had arrived in the college game, and conventional wisdom said such upsets would become more common in future tournaments.
As it turned out, searching for this year's George Mason proved no more fruitful than searching for George Mason in this year's bracket. The lowest-rated team in the field to reach the round of 16 is a No. 7 seed UNLV making this the first year since 1995 when no double-digit seed will play in the regional semifinals.
Perhaps even more surprising was that only two of the 24 teams seeded 11th or lower made it past the first round - No. 11s Virginia Commonwealth and Winthrop beat No. 6s Duke and Notre Dame, respectively. So, how historic was the opening weekend for its lack of upsets?
We can determine this simply by adding the seed numbers of each team that won a game in the first two rounds. For example, we add two for top-seeded North Carolina's two wins; we add 14 for UNLV's two victories. If we take the tournaments cumulative seed sum and subtract it by an adjustment of 184 - which is the sum of the seeds over two rounds if the higher seed won each time - we have the Slipper Index.
Thus, if there were no upsets through the first four days of the tournament, the Slipper Index would be zero. The lower the number, the more the tournament played to the chalk; the higher the number, the more surprising the outcomes.
Looking back over the first two rounds of every year since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985, the average Slipper Index is 71.1. The 1999 and 2001 tournaments are tied at 98 for the highest ever. In 1999, five double-digit seeds reached the round of 16, highlighted by No. 13 Oklahoma. Two years later, the first round was littered with upsets as eight schools seeded 11th or lower won, including No. 15 Hampton's stunner over No. 2 Iowa State.
Coming back to this year's tournament, the first two rounds registered only a 24 on the Slipper Index, easily the lowest score of all-time. In fact, no other tourney has ever rated under 51 - which was done in 2004 - but that year saw three teams seeded lower than UNLV's No. 7 in 2007 advance to the regionals.
So with the dearth of upsets, is this bound to be the year where we finally see all four No. 1 seeds in the Final Four? Unlikely. In the relatively predictable 2004 tourney, only one top seed (Duke) succeeded in making it to the Final Four, and the title game was between No. 2 seed Connecticut and No. 3 Georgia Tech. Conversely, in the upset-laden 1999 and 2001 tournaments, a No. 1 seed won the national championship (UConn in 1999, Duke in 2001).
Adding to the unpredictability, in the three seasons when three of the four schools which advanced to the Final Four were No. 1 seeds, the Slipper Index ran the gamut: 61 in 1993, 76 in 1997 and 98 in 1999.
Finally, the dawn of an era of parity appears to be a myth, at least as far as the tournament is concerned. Prior to this year's record-shattering 24, the previous five tourneys scored 82, 70, 51, 57 and 78 on the Slipper Index for an average of 67.6 - just below the all-time norm.
But just as looking for this year's George Mason proved futile, history indicates a repeat of this tournament's chalky brackets in 2008 is just as unlikely. And therein lies a lot of the beauty of the NCAA tournament. No matter how much history you study, the only true pattern which emerges is that there is, in fact, no pattern.
The best teams usually do win in the end, but in a single-elimination format there is no telling how those teams will get there. That unpredictability of which teams will get it done on the court helps make this tournament arguably the most fascinating event in American sports. It keeps us filling out brackets, watching the games, and waiting for that next Cinderella to arrive.
Because nobody has any real idea when she will.
---
Matt Brown was a research analyst for STATS LLC prior to becoming an editor. He can be reached at mbrownstats.com.
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Copyright 2006-2007, The Associated Press, All Rights Reserved
New Mexico reaches deal to hire Alford
New Mexico and Iowa coach Steve Alford have agreed to the final details of a contract and Alford will be introduced as the Lobos' new coach at a news conference Friday, multiple sources in both camps said Thursday morning.
Alford, who has been staying at his vacation home in Sarasota, Fla., this week, is expected to travel to Albuquerque to attend the news conference.
Craig Neal, Alford's top assistant at Iowa, will join New Mexico's staff after Alford secured a significant financial agreement for him.
Sources said Alford was thrilled with the commitment from recently hired New Mexico athletic director Paul Krebs and impressed by the university's decision to upgrade the famed Pit, which, according to Krebs, will receive $12 million from state government for renovation. There also is hope that the figure could rise to $20 million. The Lobos opened a new practice facility last year.
New Mexico targeted Alford within the past two weeks while also waiting to talk to Winthrop coach Gregg Marshall, whose team was playing in the NCAA Tournament. But according to multiple sources, New Mexico told Marshall on Tuesday that it would be committing to another candidate.
The courtship of Alford started in large part because of new university president David Schmidly's previous employment at Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are coached by Bob Knight, who coached Alford at Indiana in the 1980s.
According to sources, the Lobos consider it a major coup to land a Big Ten coach to replace the outgoing Ritchie McKay. Alford won two Big Ten tournament titles and took Iowa to the NCAA Tournament three times -- in 2001, 2005 and 2006.
Alford has been at Iowa for eight seasons after coaching Missouri State (then Southwest Missouri State) to the Sweet 16 in 1999.
Alford succeeded Dr. Tom Davis at Iowa in 1999 and was 152-106 overall with a 61-67 record in Big Ten games. He was under contract through 2011.
Sources close to Alford said he was looking for a new challenge following some stressful seasons in Iowa City. The Hawkeyes have had some issues off the court, notably Pierre Pierce's legal troubles during Alford's tenure. Once the Hawkeyes' leading scorer, Pierce was charged with assault in 2002 and then in 2005 sentenced to prison on an array of charges involving an incident with a former girlfriend.
With football reigning as the most popular sport at Iowa, sources said Alford was looking for a school that is passionate about basketball first. Krebs has pledged to make the Lobos nationally prominent, bumping up the coach's salary more than $500,000 in an attempt to get it closer to Alford's nearly $1 million annual salary at Iowa.
Alford coached the Hawkeyes to a 17-14 record this season. They were 9-7 in the Big Ten, tied with NCAA-bound teams Illinois and Purdue for fourth place. The Hawkeyes also missed out on an NIT berth.
The Lobos reached the NCAA Tournament under McKay once, losing in the first round in 2005. The Lobos' NCAA history is brief. Dave Bliss took the Lobos to the tournament seven times between 1991 and 1999. Prior to Bliss' hiring, the Lobos made only three other tournament appearances in their history. Krebs would be banking on Alford bringing the Lobos back into contention for a bid on a regular basis.
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Website uses math to pick NCAA basketball tournament winners
Published: Wednesday, March 14, 2007
7:28 PM ET
Canadian Press: SAMUEL SPIES
RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) - There are plenty of strategies for winning the NCAA office pool that have little to do with basketball - best mascots, coolest uniforms, favourite team colours.
For Tom Adams, it's all about the math. The systems analyst from Cary runs poologic.com, a website that brings a little science to March Madness. Since the site went online in time for the 2000 tournament, he estimates users could have won more than US$250,000 in office polls by using his algorithm and recommended strategies.
"Pool managers hate this," said Adams, a graduate of North Carolina, the top seed in the East Regional.
The basic science is pretty simple. Based on a pool's scoring system, poologic.com calculates the advantage of picking an upset versus the favourite in the brackets. In a standard-scoring pool, the program doesn't offer users much of an assist. But in a pool where picking upsets earns extra points, it can be a winner - enough to lead those running office pools to complain.
"Managers told them they didn't like the fact they were betting so many upsets," Adams said. "Some pool managers change the rules. There's a bit of a battle between poologic and the people who are running the pools."
The idea of using statistics to value one team over another isn't a new concept - it's pretty common these days in baseball, for example, where both fantasy players and front-office professionals use similar systems to evaluate individual players.
To take full advantage of the program, Adams warns against picking teams that are No. 1 in the polls and are local favourites. This year, he said he's entering four brackets with Kansas, North Carolina, Texas A&M and UCLA as champs.
"It's complicated math to figure out how to maximize your score with upset incentives," he said. "That's hard to do. Poologic does that for you."
Adams' system uses betting point spreads and team rankings from various websites to pick its NCAA tournament winners. He stayed home from work on Wednesday to add the latest information to the site, which got about 15,000 hits last year.
The 56-year-old developed his system after learning the Java programming language. Looking for something to do with that knowledge, he settled on a website for picking NCAA tournament winners. That was at the height of the technology boom, and Adams figured the site would earn him more money than whatever he collected each March.
"It was 1999, and supposedly every website you created was going to turn into gold," he said.
It didn't, and while Adams is sure others have won pools using his program, he has yet to cut down any nets. Adams won a pool using a similar strategy in 1999, but has finished in the money just once using poologic.
"I'm a bit behind," he admits.
On the Net:
Poologic: http://www.poologic.com
Bluejays earn NCAA berth with MVC title win over
No. 11 Salukis
March 4, 2007
CBS SportsLine.com wire reports
ST. LOUIS -- Creighton knows how to ramp it up in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament.
Anthony Tolliver had 15 points and 13 rebounds to help Creighton upset No. 11 Southern Illinois 67-61 Sunday in the conference championship, earning the Bluejays their sixth title in nine years.
None of the six championships have come with the Blue Jays playing as the top seed.
"I used to say it was just our depth because we used to play 10 or 11 guys," said coach Dana Altman, whose team earned its seventh NCAA Tournament appearance over that span. "But this year that wasn't the reason.
"We had three great seniors that really just took the tournament over."
Nate Funk added 19 points and four assists and Nick Porter had 15 points and six assists for second-seeded Creighton (22-10). Funk, who scored a season-high 33 points in the semifinals against Missouri State, was named tournament MVP and was joined on the five-man all-tournament team by fellow seniors Tolliver and Porter.
All three have overcome major injuries, and Altman said, "That adds a little bit when you can finish it like that."
Jamaal Tatum had 21 points for Southern Illinois (27-6), which has won the regular-season title five times in the last six seasons but has won the tournament only once during that span. The loss ended a 13-game winning streak for the Salukis, who landed Tatum and Matt Shaw, who had 11 points, on the all-tournament team.
"If we don't really take care of our defense, we're just an average team," guard Bryan Mullins said.
The Valley's regular-season champion hasn't won the conference tournament since 1998.
Creighton lost twice to Southern Illinois by a total of five points during the regular season. Sunday's victory ended an eight-game losing streak against the Salukis dating to the 2003 Valley championship game.
"The last time we beat them was on this court four years ago," Funk said. "It feels great. We played together and we played hard."
Despite the loss Southern Illinois could get a second or third seed in the NCAA Tournament, considering the school's No. 4 RPI rating and its ranking. The Valley hasn't had a top-five seed since Tulsa was a fourth seed in 1984.
"I don't care about that," coach Chris Lowery said. "I'm more interested in trying to console our kids. We have to make sure that our psyche is in the right frame of mind."
Altman wasn't worried about where Creighton figured in the equation, either, although he assumed the Bluejays were in even before the championship game.
"People a lot smarter than me will make that decision," Altman said. "We'll just wait and see and get ourselves ready.
"It really doesn't matter where you're seeded, it's who you're matched up against."
Tolliver earned his first double-double in 10 games and sixth of the season, taking advantage of a poor game by Southern Illinois' Randal Falker. Tolliver personally outscored Southern Illinois 8-2 during a three-minute span to put the Bluejays ahead 47-34 with 11:22 to go.
Falker, who averages 12.8 points, scored only three on 1-for-5 shooting. He missed everything on one free-throw attempt, then barely made it to the rim on two misses with 2:36 to go and a chance to narrow the gap to six. He fouled out with 2:19 left.
"Nothing went in, nothing worked," Falker said. "Just overall a bad game."
Southern Illinois cut the gap to five on Tatum's basket in the lane with 49 seconds to go, but Creighton went 3-for-4 from the line the rest of the way.
Creighton led 32-28 at halftime and seized control in the opening 1:39 after the break, converting two turnovers into five points while taking a 39-29 lead. Porter hit a pair of layups during the early flurry, one on a fast break and another off a steal, and Dane Watts' layup off another turnover resulted in a three-point play and the largest lead of the game to that point.
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